KNYGA National Research Council Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for providing flood forecasts and warnings in the United States. The agency established the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) program in 1997 to advance technology for hydrologic services, specifically to provide accurate forecasts that support timely warnings for all users of hydrologic predictions. AHPS strives to provide information at the right time to facilitate adequate responses to mitigate damages to life, livelihoods, and property. AHPS is slated to be fully implemented nationwide in 2013. With seven years still remaining in its development and implementation timeline, a review of the program now is critical to providing NWS with information it needs to maximize the effectiveness of the AHPS program. This report assesses AHPS in respect to hydrologic science and technology research, river routing and mechanics, "systems" engineering aspects, and implementation. Overall, this report finds AHPS to be an ambitious program that promises to provide services and products that are timely and necessary. The report calls for AHPS to develop a detailed and comprehensive, multi-year implementation plan and for the program's goals and budget to be brought into closer alignment.